Can Africa break away from old power structures and shape its own future?

In 2025, Africa stands at a critical juncture. Political shifts, youth-driven demands for reform, and escalating regional conflicts mark a defining moment for the continent. While Africa faces a historic opportunity to shape its own future, the central question remains: Will the new political leadership embrace this moment of change, or will they fall back on established power structures?
With fresh leadership in key institutions like the African Union (AU) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), the stage is set for political and economic transformation. The coming years will be pivotal in determining Africa’s role both locally and globally. Will this leadership challenge the status quo and confront the continent’s persistent challenges, or will they simply uphold old power dynamics?

Africa’s long struggle with political and economic conflicts

For decades, Africa has wrestled with unresolved political and economic struggles. Many nations remain under authoritarian rule, a stark contrast to the aspirations of a younger generation eager for democratic reforms. The new AU Commission Chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, is a leader with the potential to catalyze change. His experience as Djibouti’s Foreign Minister and his diplomatic acumen positions him well to challenge entrenched power structures. Yet, whether he can lead the continent by breaking free from historical political constraints remains uncertain. H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, H.E. Ambassador Selma Malika Haddadi, and 4 Commissioners elected to leadership positions in the African Union Commission elections | African Union

National tensions and regional consequences

Africa’s political future hinges not just on continental leadership, but also on the developments within individual nations. The November 2024 elections in Senegal tested the region’s democratic resilience, as military coups continue to undermine stability. In Ghana, elections revealed widespread economic discontent, triggering political shifts as incumbent governments faced significant defeats. Could the 2025 elections usher in a new political era for the continent?
In South Africa, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) saw a sharp decline in the 2024 elections, securing only 40% of the vote—a dramatic 30% drop from the previous election. This marks a historic turning point in South Africa’s political trajectory and reshapes both national and international perspectives on the country.
Meanwhile, in Sudan, the conflict between government forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in 2023, has led to a humanitarian disaster, with over 12 million people displaced. Similarly, in Congo, competition for natural resources continues to fuel violence, while Ethiopia and Eritrea’s long-standing territorial disputes threaten regional.
peace. The Horn of Africa, already fragile from internal conflicts, risks further instability, which could ripple across borders, disrupt trade, refugee flows, and regional security.

Youth – A force for change or a source of instability?

Africa’s youth, representing a significant portion of the population, will either drive economic growth or become a source of social unrest—depending on how their needs for employment, education, and political inclusion are addressed. Movements such as Y’en a Marre in Senegal and End SARS in Nigeria demonstrate the growing demand for democratic reforms, though they face strong resistance from entrenched regimes. If these movements fail to gain momentum, Africa risks a future defined by frustration, division, and instability.
The continent cannot afford to ignore the frustrations of its young people. A lack of opportunity threatens to create a “lost generation” caught in economic stagnation and political disillusionment. The future of Africa’s economy and stability is inextricably linked to how well youth are integrated into the workforce, provided with education, and empowered to participate politically. Without these avenues, Africa faces both economic and political collapse, with young people potentially becoming a destabilizing force within the continent and a source of insecurity globally.

Security and international interests

Africa’s security situation remains a profound challenge. The U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has played a key role in counterterrorism operations, particularly in Somalia. However, the previous administration’s more isolationist foreign policy, combined with the current administration’s signal to reduce AFRICOM’s presence, may create a power vacuum that terrorist groups like al-Shabaab and ISIS could exploit, further destabilizing the region.
In Somalia, the Puntland region has had some success against ISIS militants, but the broader threat from extremist groups remains. The ongoing instability provides fertile ground for terror networks to flourish, further deepening insecurity, causing loss of life, and restricting access to essential services. These security concerns ripple beyond Africa, with these groups posing a global threat. The continued instability contributes to growing refugee movements, arms proliferation, and broader geopolitical instability.

Norway as a Partner

Norway’s relationship with Africa should evolve from traditional aid-based assistance to a more dynamic partnership focused on economic cooperation. As Africa rises to become a significant economic player with vast resources and an innovative, youthful population, Norway has a unique opportunity to collaborate on sustainable development. Norway’s lack of a colonial past, unlike many Western nations, offers a potential foundation for deeper trust and stronger cooperation.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an exciting opportunity for intra-African trade, reducing the continent’s dependence on external powers. Norwegian companies should seize the opportunity to engage with Africa on the continent’s terms, focusing on sectors such as renewable energy, aquaculture, and digital innovation. However, Norway’s risk-averse approach has limited its footprint in Africa. By investing in sustainable development projects, Norway can play a crucial role in fostering a self-sufficient, resilient Africa.

A critical crossroads

Africa stands at a crossroads. Both immense challenges and unprecedented opportunities lie ahead. But to realize its potential, bold leadership requires leadership that is willing to embrace change, reform, and the empowerment of its people. If Africa’s leaders rise to this challenge, they will not only shape a new future for the continent, but they will also redefine Africa’s role in the global order.
For Norway, actively engaging in Africa’s development is not just an opportunity to contribute to positive change—it is an opportunity to strengthen its position as a credible, influential global actor. By investing in Africa’s future, Norway can secure its own future on the international stage, fostering relationships that are based on mutual benefit and shared growth.